Its looking like another dark cloud is drifting over Tyneside. In the wake of the demise of our little brother at Blue Star (who at least had a good season on the pitch), it has emerged that Mike Ashley is willing to cut and run on NUFC.
If this is true and he is willing to take £100m for the club the it shows how poor the finances have been managed. With reportedly £50m of debt having developed over the past season, you can see why a season in the Championship with a £70m wage bill is not looking too appealing to the ex bllionaire.
Realsitically much of this is driven by disasterous boardroom appointments and managerial changes. Allardyce (£5m), Keegan (£8m), Wise (£3m), Kinnear (£2m), Hughton (£1m), Calderwood (£1m), coaching staff (£1m) and other administration staff (£1m) will have not helped the finances. The money spent on Shearer and Dowie (up to £1.5m) is realistically the sort of total spend we need for the whole of next season on management. Any new regime needs to think about this before bending over backwards and offering the world to Shearer.
With the wage bill of the squad and general running costs Newcastle would need to be brining in £150m next season to break even. In the Championship this will not be possible. If Newcastle can bring in £50m next season then that will be a strong financial performance in that league, so we are desperate to be back in the top flight within two seasons otherwise the longer term future is dire.
Assuming that Ashley sells up and the new buyer can pump in £40m to clear the overdraft, then every single player in the first team squad needs to be put up for sale. Its great news that some players want to stay, but we can't afford them - they all need to go, as the wage bill needs to drop from the current £74m to below £30m.
Things are obviously far worse than first thought. No messiah can change things, only sensible business planning.
Sunday 31 May 2009
Saturday 2 May 2009
Strip the heart out
In a really practical sense it is obvious that we're going to need to really sort the club out, and if we go down its a time for radical re-evaluation.
Over and Out
We know the players who will have gone if we're down (Owen, Viduka, Martins, Gutierrez, Collocini, Gonzalez, Xisco, Geremi, Cacapa), we'll make little or no money from any of these apart from Martins, but will see annual wages reduced by £20m.
Who would I keep?
Steve Harper
Habib Beye
Jose Enrique
Sebastien Bassong
Steven Taylor
Peter Lovenkrands
Danny Guthrie
Ryan Taylor
Nicky Butt
Andy Carrol
Nile Ranger
subs
David Edgar
Fraser Forster
Kazenga Lua Lua
Haris Vukic
Ben Tozer
This is a pretty decent side, with a nice balance of experience and youth. While we would clearly need another striker and central midfielder, we should have enough to cover everything else in the Championship and get us back up. The young talent of Vukic and Tozer should be able to step up to cover the forward and left back positions which are obvious gaps, but the like of Butt and Beye would be essential to get us back up.
What about the rest?
Joey Barton - we need to build spirit and therefore need the 'right type' of players
Kevin Nolan - not a 'Newcastle' player, so let him go back to Bolton
Alan Smith - There's no clear role for him at the club and his wages are too high
Shola Ameobi - no need to comment really
Damien Duff - not the player he was, but someone must want him!
These lot while bringing in around £15m would also save us a further £5-6m in wages, which would mean the club overall would be saving £25m in wages, and around £20m back in through transfer fees. Surely this would allow us to build for the future???
This would be getting rid of 14 players, and while thats never going to happen (all of 'the rest' are likely to stay next season where ever we are), it would allow us to build bottom up. There is the chance that if we do go down that Bassong and Beye would go as well which would be a disaster for the club. We'll just have to wait and see...
Over and Out
We know the players who will have gone if we're down (Owen, Viduka, Martins, Gutierrez, Collocini, Gonzalez, Xisco, Geremi, Cacapa), we'll make little or no money from any of these apart from Martins, but will see annual wages reduced by £20m.
Who would I keep?
Steve Harper
Habib Beye
Jose Enrique
Sebastien Bassong
Steven Taylor
Peter Lovenkrands
Danny Guthrie
Ryan Taylor
Nicky Butt
Andy Carrol
Nile Ranger
subs
David Edgar
Fraser Forster
Kazenga Lua Lua
Haris Vukic
Ben Tozer
This is a pretty decent side, with a nice balance of experience and youth. While we would clearly need another striker and central midfielder, we should have enough to cover everything else in the Championship and get us back up. The young talent of Vukic and Tozer should be able to step up to cover the forward and left back positions which are obvious gaps, but the like of Butt and Beye would be essential to get us back up.
What about the rest?
Joey Barton - we need to build spirit and therefore need the 'right type' of players
Kevin Nolan - not a 'Newcastle' player, so let him go back to Bolton
Alan Smith - There's no clear role for him at the club and his wages are too high
Shola Ameobi - no need to comment really
Damien Duff - not the player he was, but someone must want him!
These lot while bringing in around £15m would also save us a further £5-6m in wages, which would mean the club overall would be saving £25m in wages, and around £20m back in through transfer fees. Surely this would allow us to build for the future???
This would be getting rid of 14 players, and while thats never going to happen (all of 'the rest' are likely to stay next season where ever we are), it would allow us to build bottom up. There is the chance that if we do go down that Bassong and Beye would go as well which would be a disaster for the club. We'll just have to wait and see...
Basic Errors
The season is drawing to a close and the inevitable debacle of relegation is ever closer. With that cloud drifting over we now need to consider the realities which Shearer has brought to our attention since coming to the club.
1 - The players aren't good enough.
This may sound obvious given the fact we're in the bottom three, but we have a volume of internationals who individually could do jobs (and have done) at higher levels. The but is that these players are simply not the right ones, and that is something which must heavily sit at the feet of Mssrs Kinnear, Wise and Ashley.
Its been said so many times, but Keegan wanted a left back, centre half, creative midfielder and big man up front. The players he was after were Riise, Dunne, Johnson, Gudjonson and potentially some 'names' as well. All four experienced premiership players who would have cost around £25m. Over the season we have seen Taylor, Nolan, Gonzalez, Xisco, Gutierrez and Collocini for around £25m. We have also lost Given and Milner. Of those brought in this season not one has made themselves a certain first teamer.
We simply need to start from scratch. Ideally I would strip the team apart, but lets see.
2 - We only have one left back
Keegan highlighted this and it was a major issue in the 'Wise' clash. Enrique has come on leaps and bounds, but since Nzogbia left we have no back up, and poor Bassong or Edgar will have to fill in (unless Duff is forced to make a fool of himself back there.
3 - The training ground needs to be reviewed
Shearer new about the injury issues when he came in, which is why Paul Ferris joined him, but there seems to be issue's with the pitches at Little Benton, and this needs to be addressed urgently.
4 - There are too many people working for NUFC
We have too many coaches, backroom staff and players. If Shearer stays their will be significant trimming and potentially in the boardroom as well.
Its pretty basic stuff, but Ashley wanted to change his structure and its hasn't worked. It saw Keegan leave, and has Kinnear become a joke. Lets hope Shearers advice is taken, even if he doesn't stay around to sort it himself.
1 - The players aren't good enough.
This may sound obvious given the fact we're in the bottom three, but we have a volume of internationals who individually could do jobs (and have done) at higher levels. The but is that these players are simply not the right ones, and that is something which must heavily sit at the feet of Mssrs Kinnear, Wise and Ashley.
Its been said so many times, but Keegan wanted a left back, centre half, creative midfielder and big man up front. The players he was after were Riise, Dunne, Johnson, Gudjonson and potentially some 'names' as well. All four experienced premiership players who would have cost around £25m. Over the season we have seen Taylor, Nolan, Gonzalez, Xisco, Gutierrez and Collocini for around £25m. We have also lost Given and Milner. Of those brought in this season not one has made themselves a certain first teamer.
We simply need to start from scratch. Ideally I would strip the team apart, but lets see.
2 - We only have one left back
Keegan highlighted this and it was a major issue in the 'Wise' clash. Enrique has come on leaps and bounds, but since Nzogbia left we have no back up, and poor Bassong or Edgar will have to fill in (unless Duff is forced to make a fool of himself back there.
3 - The training ground needs to be reviewed
Shearer new about the injury issues when he came in, which is why Paul Ferris joined him, but there seems to be issue's with the pitches at Little Benton, and this needs to be addressed urgently.
4 - There are too many people working for NUFC
We have too many coaches, backroom staff and players. If Shearer stays their will be significant trimming and potentially in the boardroom as well.
Its pretty basic stuff, but Ashley wanted to change his structure and its hasn't worked. It saw Keegan leave, and has Kinnear become a joke. Lets hope Shearers advice is taken, even if he doesn't stay around to sort it himself.
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