Sunday 9 August 2009

Week One: Changes Needed

So, away from the pitch we need to really consider what is going on...

... we need to prepare for not being sold, what this means is making some strong decisions

1, Appoint Shearer on a one year contract
2, Get Coloccini and Barton out this week what ever way you can
3, Sign a right-back who can also cover at centre-half

Then on the pitch Nolan needs to be dropped and Ranger given his chance. These were the obvious problems yesterday (beyond central defence).

If Shearer had been given the role we would have expected to have seen Danny Fox and Bradley Orr come in at full back, Edgar would have stayed and they would have been joined by Steven Taylor as a back four.
The midfield would also have changed. Duff, Smith and Guthrie would have been possibly joined by Fabian Delph, or if we'd missed him another young winger. Barton and Nolan would have been shipped out.
Up front Beckford would be alongside Carroll.

Its not true that you need a deep squad in Championship football. Newcastle still need to strip the side back and then build up the squad. Despite being the only flare player we have Jonas must also be moved on to allow us to build for the winter months.

Our squad can be stripped more:
GK - Harper, Krul, Soderberg (+ Forster out on loan)
This is our strongest element and really we are blessed with some talent in goal

Def - Taylor, Collo, Taylor R, Enrique, Kadar, Tozer, Geremi
We need to bring in two full backs (we've said that before, or Keegan did anyway!). Edgar should have stayed, so we need a replacement for him and ship out Geremi who is pointless in the squad as well as Collo.

Mid - Duff, Smith, Guthrie, Butt, Nolan, Barton, Jonas, Lua Lua
We lack real width if Jonas leaves, and lack creativity in the centre. Barton is a liability, Butt is in his final season, and Nolan adds little. We won't see much change here, but would have seen those three leave and replacements come in had we had a manager in the past 9 weeks.

For - Carroll, Ameobi, Ranger, Xisco
This should be strong enough for the Championship. Beckford would have been a great addition and Xisco is unlikely to add much and could have been released. Again the ideal would be for this to still happen.

Thats a 22 man squad we're playing with, and there is still a lot of fat in there. We need 4 new players in and can ship out 6 comfortably. While reducing staff it would give us a much more solid squad, allowing youngsters the chance to experience the first team as well.

We only have three weeks, and the likelihood is that little will happen, but all we can do is cross our fingers and pray for some changes

Lets see!

A New Dawn? A point at least

On a positive NUFC have started the new season much better than expected, with a point at Sir Bobby's former club at The Hawthorns.
After a minute of celebration for the great man, we got back to second flight football with vigour and certainly entertained the crowd. Both teams showed why the will do well in the Championship, but also were pretty clear as to why they ended there in the first place.
Smith led as a captain should, and Tim Krul came on in the second half for the injured Harper to put in a sterling performance. Ranger got his debut, Carroll was strong up front and Taylor and Duff were solid.
That said the frailties were clear for all to see. Nolan was frankly shocking in midfield, and if Barton has disrupted so much to be back out of the side then Lua Lua must start in the next game. Coloccini struggled, and having been an Argentine international 12 months ago, to see him struggling against a 17 year old kiwi was worrying. Again bring in youth and allow Kadar to partner Taylor next week.
Overall though there was still a lack of coherency and leadership. Newcastle gained a good point, but Hughton does not lead. He missed the obvious substitutions and generally added nothing during the 90 mins.
A better start than expected, but lets remain realistic. We won 3-1 there a few months ago and weren't good enough to stay up, so dropping two points in a league where anyone can beat anyone is a word of warning.

Saturday 20 June 2009

Xisco - £5.7m???

Watching England defeat Spain in the under 21's was a pleasure, but was diluted slightly by one of the Spanish substitutions.
Xisco came in in the second half and his impact was negligible. For a player being paid £50k a week and valued at £6m a year ago by Dennis Wise, he was well out of his depth. The huge difference between his ability and that of ex-Mag Milner and United target Campbell was obvious for all to see.
Based on this performance its not suprising that Xisco is wanting to stay. The Championship is his level, and he would be lucky to get a top flight move back to Spain, so its an easy choice really - take home £2.5m next year in Newcastle and get a few games or move back to Spain, earn £1m and spend most of your time on the bench.
You can't blame the player, but who ever sanctioned the transfer should keep an eye on him and learn that you can't waste money in this way.

What Next?

We were told that buyers would be in place this week, and to expect Shearer to be in place by pre-season training started next week. Well...
It seems that Mike Ashley has written off his investment in NUFC with no sign of any management of the club from a board level. It truly seems to be an empty shell. There seems to be little involvement from anyone either at Little Benton or St James'.
There is a desperate need for someone to start sorting the squad out. Even if it is simply a case of removing the overpaid stars from the club for a business reason, rather than assessing the side from a footballing angle.
The reality is that we cannot afford to keep any of the players on over £50k, so that means someone should be actively looking to move on Enrique, Collicini, Jonas, Duff, Smith, Barton, Nolan, Ameobi, Xisco and Martins. Bassong also doesn't want to be there, but who is going to sign him? Arsenal have their new centre back, so the options of cashing in are now vastly reduced.
Unless something happens this weekend then NUFC are in real trouble of facing a mid-table battle next season.

Saturday 6 June 2009

Shaping Up

Its now looking that Shearer will be appointed manager next week on a four year contract. With a contract worth up to £3m a year its a huge investment for a Championship club and totally reliant on us getting straight back up. Again far from the safest route, but it seems like its going to happen, so we have to have faith that it will be money well spent, both from a management point of view, and a new buyers view.
As soon as Shearer allows the ink to dry you would expect the signings to come in. It certainly seems that he has his eye on some early signing.

Chris Gunter - The 19 year old Welsh international is short of first team chances at Spurs and with Harry willing to let him come out on load for a season would offer support in the full back positions. The expectation would be for him to come in and hold down a left back position.

Danny Fox - Originally the most likely to come in, but with Gunter looking a cert then it is suggesting that Shearer either isn't keen on the young Coventry full back, or that he's unsure about securing his signing ahead or Premier interest.

Bradley Orr - The ex-reserves captain (when Shearer led the first team) could be on for a return and his first experience of the big time. Solid at Bristol for recent seasons and with great experience in the division, the rigth full back would be a sensible signing.

Its pretty clear that as with Keegan last season Shearer feels full back is where we lack depth, and with Enrique off, its looking that the idea is to bring in 2/3 full backs and potentially allow Habib Beye to move to the centre of defence to support Steven Taylor.

Jermaine Beckford - The talented Leeds strikerr has proved himself at the lower levels and for around £3m would be a good investment to support Carroll, Ameobi and Ranger next season. Much depends on whether the likes of Burnley are willing to take a punt on him in the top flight.

Beyond that you would expect that Shearer would be looking for some creative presence in midfield. Ideally Nolan, Smith, Duff and Barton will leave, alongside Jonas, which would leave Guthrie, Butt and Taylor in the midfield, so we would certainly expect some strengthening to follow and potentially a season for Lee Bowyer to come back in on a free to add some craft and bite into the team.

Lets just see where we go!

Sunday 31 May 2009

Financially and Emotionally Bankrupt

Its looking like another dark cloud is drifting over Tyneside. In the wake of the demise of our little brother at Blue Star (who at least had a good season on the pitch), it has emerged that Mike Ashley is willing to cut and run on NUFC.
If this is true and he is willing to take £100m for the club the it shows how poor the finances have been managed. With reportedly £50m of debt having developed over the past season, you can see why a season in the Championship with a £70m wage bill is not looking too appealing to the ex bllionaire.
Realsitically much of this is driven by disasterous boardroom appointments and managerial changes. Allardyce (£5m), Keegan (£8m), Wise (£3m), Kinnear (£2m), Hughton (£1m), Calderwood (£1m), coaching staff (£1m) and other administration staff (£1m) will have not helped the finances. The money spent on Shearer and Dowie (up to £1.5m) is realistically the sort of total spend we need for the whole of next season on management. Any new regime needs to think about this before bending over backwards and offering the world to Shearer.
With the wage bill of the squad and general running costs Newcastle would need to be brining in £150m next season to break even. In the Championship this will not be possible. If Newcastle can bring in £50m next season then that will be a strong financial performance in that league, so we are desperate to be back in the top flight within two seasons otherwise the longer term future is dire.
Assuming that Ashley sells up and the new buyer can pump in £40m to clear the overdraft, then every single player in the first team squad needs to be put up for sale. Its great news that some players want to stay, but we can't afford them - they all need to go, as the wage bill needs to drop from the current £74m to below £30m.
Things are obviously far worse than first thought. No messiah can change things, only sensible business planning.

Saturday 2 May 2009

At least the fans get into the spirit!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPvnVHYDXws&feature=related

Strip the heart out

In a really practical sense it is obvious that we're going to need to really sort the club out, and if we go down its a time for radical re-evaluation.

Over and Out
We know the players who will have gone if we're down (Owen, Viduka, Martins, Gutierrez, Collocini, Gonzalez, Xisco, Geremi, Cacapa), we'll make little or no money from any of these apart from Martins, but will see annual wages reduced by £20m.

Who would I keep?

Steve Harper
Habib Beye
Jose Enrique
Sebastien Bassong
Steven Taylor
Peter Lovenkrands
Danny Guthrie
Ryan Taylor
Nicky Butt
Andy Carrol
Nile Ranger

subs
David Edgar
Fraser Forster
Kazenga Lua Lua
Haris Vukic
Ben Tozer

This is a pretty decent side, with a nice balance of experience and youth. While we would clearly need another striker and central midfielder, we should have enough to cover everything else in the Championship and get us back up. The young talent of Vukic and Tozer should be able to step up to cover the forward and left back positions which are obvious gaps, but the like of Butt and Beye would be essential to get us back up.

What about the rest?
Joey Barton - we need to build spirit and therefore need the 'right type' of players
Kevin Nolan - not a 'Newcastle' player, so let him go back to Bolton
Alan Smith - There's no clear role for him at the club and his wages are too high
Shola Ameobi - no need to comment really
Damien Duff - not the player he was, but someone must want him!

These lot while bringing in around £15m would also save us a further £5-6m in wages, which would mean the club overall would be saving £25m in wages, and around £20m back in through transfer fees. Surely this would allow us to build for the future???

This would be getting rid of 14 players, and while thats never going to happen (all of 'the rest' are likely to stay next season where ever we are), it would allow us to build bottom up. There is the chance that if we do go down that Bassong and Beye would go as well which would be a disaster for the club. We'll just have to wait and see...

Basic Errors

The season is drawing to a close and the inevitable debacle of relegation is ever closer. With that cloud drifting over we now need to consider the realities which Shearer has brought to our attention since coming to the club.

1 - The players aren't good enough.
This may sound obvious given the fact we're in the bottom three, but we have a volume of internationals who individually could do jobs (and have done) at higher levels. The but is that these players are simply not the right ones, and that is something which must heavily sit at the feet of Mssrs Kinnear, Wise and Ashley.
Its been said so many times, but Keegan wanted a left back, centre half, creative midfielder and big man up front. The players he was after were Riise, Dunne, Johnson, Gudjonson and potentially some 'names' as well. All four experienced premiership players who would have cost around £25m. Over the season we have seen Taylor, Nolan, Gonzalez, Xisco, Gutierrez and Collocini for around £25m. We have also lost Given and Milner. Of those brought in this season not one has made themselves a certain first teamer.
We simply need to start from scratch. Ideally I would strip the team apart, but lets see.

2 - We only have one left back
Keegan highlighted this and it was a major issue in the 'Wise' clash. Enrique has come on leaps and bounds, but since Nzogbia left we have no back up, and poor Bassong or Edgar will have to fill in (unless Duff is forced to make a fool of himself back there.

3 - The training ground needs to be reviewed
Shearer new about the injury issues when he came in, which is why Paul Ferris joined him, but there seems to be issue's with the pitches at Little Benton, and this needs to be addressed urgently.

4 - There are too many people working for NUFC
We have too many coaches, backroom staff and players. If Shearer stays their will be significant trimming and potentially in the boardroom as well.

Its pretty basic stuff, but Ashley wanted to change his structure and its hasn't worked. It saw Keegan leave, and has Kinnear become a joke. Lets hope Shearers advice is taken, even if he doesn't stay around to sort it himself.

Sunday 29 March 2009

Never Forget...

While NUFC suffer it is important not to forget that there is more football on Tyneside and in Northumberland. With Gateshead and Whitley Bay both having relative success this season its a chance to take your disillusion and help the smaller clubs. There is potential for a second or third side to flourish in the areas and this is why...

Gateshead FC - 1st Conference North
The Tynesiders are strong and strengthening. The hope will be that they can stick this out and get back into the Conference next season. Once there it is always going to be tough to stay their, but the dream of a second league football side on Tyneside could be here in a couple of years.

Blyth Spartans AFC - 19th Conference North
The FA Cup specialists have struggled in the league this year, and like their Premier League counterparts survival is the best they can hope for this season after the glory run in the cup.

Newcastle Blue Star - 5th Unibond North
Hopefully Blue Star can push on this season to stay in the play off positions and sneak into the Unibond Premier next season. The dream is to push on to break into the Conference divisions in the next couple of years and finally become a solid alternative to United. A well run club in Newcastle and lets hope that they can push on to get 3 Tyneside teams in League positions in the next 5 years!

The Best of the Rest...
Dunston Federation - 2nd Northern League
Newcastle Benfield - 3rd Northern League
West Allotment Celtic - 4th Northern League
Whitley Bay FC - 6th Northern League
With promotion to the Unibond difficult to gain both on and off the pitch, and Consett leading the way, the hope would be that either Fed or Benfield can win their games in hand to get a Geordie team into the Unibond structure for 2009/10 and push on in the way that Blue Star have. The biggest team of the bunch, Whitley Bay, don't have a chance of promotion this year, but a strong cup run could set them up nicely for 2009/10 and you would expect them to be the most likely in the long run to be able to push on and survive in the higher division.

The Pride of Tyneside

This weekend saw some pride restored in Geordie football with a step closer to a Wembley cup final in the form of a 2-1 cup victory.
This is something which should be shown before the game at Chelsea next week, as Whitley Bay took the focus off their famous neighbours at Newcastle. Lets hope that the boys can stick it out further in the next leg in Norfolk and kick on to allow tens of thousands of Tynesiders take the trip to Wembley with a realistic chance of victory. There needs to be some positive energy at the moment, and if only that could transfer into the Premier side.
Looking around Tyneside Gateshead look to be on the verge of promotion, Blue Star are still in with a chance of pushing for promotion and The Bay can have a decent finish and get to a cup final. If all things go well and we see United staying up and Bay winning a cup, and Star and The Tynesiders getting promoted then it doesn't have to be all doom and gloom just because of Mr Ashley!!!
HOWAY THE LADS!!!

Sunday 22 March 2009

Reality Bites

Its now time to be realistic and look to the future for NUFC. If Newcastle do survive they still need to re-structure and go back to basics. A spirited performance for 60 mins yesterday proved there are players capable of fighting in the Premiership, but a lack of leadership saw things fall apart, and a frankly disgraceful sub performance from Michael Owen summed up our season.
The clearout must begin with Owen, Smith, Geremi, Butt, Ameobi, Viduka, Cacapa and Duff all needing to be shipped out alongside Gonzalez and Xisco to free up space for some of the talented youngsters. While we may not find any money coming in for these players it will at least open opportunity and save in the region of £350k per week in wages. With bonuses etc that equates to £20m across the season in savings.

What would that leave?
GK - Harper, Krul, Foster
Def - Beye, Enrique, Collocini, Taylor, Bassong, Edgar, Tozer, Kadar
Mid - Nolan, Barton, Taylor, Gutierrez, Guthrie, Lovendkrands, Lua Lua, Inman, Vukic
For - Martins, Carrol, Ranger, Baheng, Danquah, Spear

This side would need a decent striker to support Martins and another central midfielder as well as a left winger but isn't too bad a base to try to survive in the Premieship next season and build. If we go down though we will lose Martins, Guttierrez and Collocini (as well as potentially Bassong), but in the Championship it should still leave a solid squad to build on.

It may be that paraniod leadership this season has restricted our ability to move forward in a squad with players such as Tozer, Lua Lua and Ranger who have not been given a chance while poor players with more experience have been given a go.

This is still a 25 man squad, although with only 15 or 16 who would genuinly be seen as first teamers, so there would have to be investment. This should be bringing in good Championship players such as Eagles or Paterson from Burnley, or young fringe players from the top 4. It has to be sensible and anough to either get us mid-table (or heaven forbid promotion) next season with a realistic financial structure.

Newcastle are in trouble and the current regime needs to be focussing on winning games, but the management must start to think beyond this and plan the business model for the future. The first point being to clear out the dead wood and not just keep giving them new contracts (such as Nicky Butt).

Sunday 8 February 2009

Mr Ashley

http://img.thesun.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00437/Mike_Ashley_437793a.jpg

There is a major reason for my re-initiation of blogging and this man is it. I want to be very clear in my views of how the club is currently being run.

1, I appreciate Mr Ashley's investment in the club and saving a badly run business to set us back on a level playing field. If FFS had continued to run the club in the same way then the current financial crisis could have had serious implications and it would have been likely that we would have been developing greater amounts of debt

2, The club is a football club and not a business. Unfortunately short term affects long term much more than in any other business and you have to invest in the right talent to fill short term gaps while looking to unearth gems for the coming years

3, The fans are the most imprtant part of the community and they need to be respected. This is their (our) club not the owners. It needs to be remembered. To this point the board need to communicate and take the fans views on board. This is not a desire for mass rule, but rather to allow them to 'optimise the business for the consumer'.

4, As Mike noticed straight away this is a passionate community who know their stuff. No person is bigger than the club and that means that Llambias and Wise need to show us value or ship out? Chris Mort developed great respect in a short time by talking to the fans and making sense. Now we don't know what is going on?

5, Mike is not a football man and needs to understand the importance of a good manager. Kinnear is a hard worker, but a man motivator - and in that sense a poor mans Keegan. We need a manager who can take the club forward. We need a young and exciting manager with experience of the English leagues who will play football on the ground. Fulfil that and the fans will give the manager time.

6, We are accepting that we need to build, so lets strip out the over paid dross and build the club for a 3 year plan. There is talent in the squad so lets build around them.

7, The club has been a joke for the past 10 years from a PR perspective and it is essential to sort our own house out. If a player steps out of line (Barton) then they should go. If a manager has a rant (JFK) then he should be repremanded. If the chairman goes out on the booze he should grow up!

8, The club needs investment. We need to plan what, where and when. If we are going to let players go then we need to have options lined up to replace them otherwise we will suffer. Leaving everything to the last day of the transfer window shows no business sense.

9, The club needs leadership. Whether Mike Ashley or a good chairman, we need someone to make us Newcastle United again!

10, Finally we need to be told the truth. Twice promise big signings in tranfer deadline day by the Chairman... twice failed to deliver. Mike please just be honest!

It all sounds so simple, but unfortunately I don't have the faith in the club at present that we'll see much of this actioned.

Back to the Future

http://i134.photobucket.com/albums/q114/Parris777/back_to_the_future.jpg


Well... where do I start?

There are a few things we need to recognise as Newcastle fans.
1 - We are a big club who always under achieve, but should be in the top 10 as a minimum
2 - We are not going to challenge the top 6 in the next couple of years
3- We have a squad with to many over paid under performing players and need to start all over again

To me this means that we need to battle to survival this season (whatever anyone says we have the players to do this), and then have a clear out.

To me this means leaving a first team squad of:
GK - Harper, Krul, Forster
DEF - Bassong, Taylor, Taylor, Collocini, Beye, Enrique, Kadar, Tozer
MID - Butt, Guthrie, Barton, Nolan, Jonas, Duff, Lua Lua
FOR - Martins, Lovenkrands, Baheng, Ranger

There is the clear need for a couple of players and its the Beattie or Dacourt signings rather than Xisco and Gonzales who we need to look at to bolster the squad. If you look at those players then its already a decent starting point. You would also hope that a couple of the other youngsters would be worth a place in the squad. And if I'm honest then Carroll and Ameobi will also still be here possibly with Alan Smith.

The next step is management, and for me its simple... find someone who knows English football and thats either Mark Hughes if he gets sacked or look for talent such as Coyle from Burnley?

Lets stop ploughing forward and take a step back, be honest with ourselves and just make sure that 2010/11 season is a successful one with us pushing for the top 6 again!

Back in the game

After a time of confusion, dis-belief and general disaster at St James' I've decided that its time to share my thoughts again with the loyal fans of NUFC.
As you'll see from the archives, there was much more positive stuff to discuss 18 months ago and having reviewed the squad then and how I felt the transfer window could go it made me wonder how we ended up where we are today.
Lets hope that in 18 months we'll have switched everything around again!